Abstract

The continued rise in house prices has sparked increasing interest in housing affordability in Malaysia. Middle-income-earning buyers, who fear that house prices may increase to a level beyond their future financial capacity, took on excessive leverage and overextended their current financial capacity. This increases their probability of default, which is unfavourable to the banking industry providing these mortgages. This study examined the impact of rising house prices on housing affordability in three urban regions in Malaysia and found that house prices in these cities, especially landed houses, were unaffordable for middle-income-earners. This study also examined the impact of a collateral valuation loss to the banking system from the potential decline in house prices, by employing a solvency stress test. The study found that the banking system remained fairly capitalised to survive a mild single-risk factor financial shock of the equivalent of house price declines in the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

摘要

房价的持续​​上涨引发了人们对马来西亚住房负担能力的兴趣。中等收入的购房者担心房价可能会上涨到超出其未来财务能力的水平，因此过度杠杆化并过度扩展了当前的财务能力。这增加了他们违约的可能性，这对提供这些抵押贷款的银行业不利。这项研究考察了马来西亚三个城市地区房价上涨对住房负担能力的影响，发现这些城市的房价，尤其是有地住宅，对中等收入者来说是负担不起的。本研究还通过使用偿付能力压力测试，研究了抵押品估值损失对银行系统潜在的房价下跌的影响。