Kelly staking has been proven to maximize long-term bankroll growth of bettors with positive expected yield (profitable bettors). However, it demands for an estimation of the true probabilities for each event. Thus, many sport tipsters opt for simpler flat (unit-loss) or unit-win staking plans. We analyze under which assumptions these strategies correspond to the Kelly method and propose a different staking plan, unit-impact, under the hypothesis that it fits better with Kelly’s. We test our predictions using data of professional tipsters from the betting database pyckio.com. Results show empirical support for our hypothesis.

中文翻译：

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在未知概率下进行体育博彩：盈利性下注者实用指南

事实证明，凯利赌注可最大化投注者的长期资金增长，并具有预期的正收益率（可盈利的投注者）。但是，它要求估计每个事件的真实概率。因此，许多体育建议者选择更简单的单位（单位亏损）或单位获胜的赌注计划。我们分析了在哪些假设下这些策略与Kelly方法相对应，并在与Kelly方法更合适的假设下提出了不同的放样计划，即单位影响。我们使用来自投注数据库pyckio.com的专业提示者的数据来检验我们的预测。结果表明了我们的假设的经验支持。