We present a theoretical model of Rabin’s famous calibration paradox that resolves confusions in the literature and that makes it possible to identify the causes of the paradox. Using suitable experimental stimuli, we show that the paradox truly violates expected utility and that it is caused by reference dependence. Rabin already showed that utility curvature alone cannot explain his paradox. We, more strongly, do not find any contribution of utility curvature to the explanation of the paradox. We find no contribution of probability weighting either. We conclude that Rabin’s paradox underscores the importance of reference dependence.

中文翻译：

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解决拉宾悖论

我们提出了Rabin著名的校准悖论的理论模型，该模型解决了文献中的混淆，并使人们有可能找出悖论的起因。通过使用适当的实验刺激，我们证明了悖论确实违反了预期的效用，并且它是由参考依赖性引起的。拉宾已经证明，效用曲率本身不能解释他的悖论。更重要的是，我们没有发现效用曲率对悖论的解释有任何贡献。我们也没有发现概率加权的贡献。我们得出的结论是，拉宾悖论强调了参考依赖的重要性。