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The rise of part-time employment in the great recession: Its causes and macroeconomic effects
Journal of Macroeconomics ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103257
Hyunju Kang , Jaevin Park , Hyunduk Suh

During the Great Recession, the U.S. economy witnessed a substantial rise in part-time employment for a sustained period. We extend the New Keynesian unemployment model by Galí et al. (2012) to allow substitutions between full-time and part-time labor, and estimate the model’s parameters by using the Bayesian method. In our model, households and firms can optimally allocate full-time and part-time labor, and disturbances exist in part-time labor supply (household disutility from part-time labor) and part-time labor demand (firms’ efficiency to use part-time labor). As for the Great Recession, the initial increase in part-time employment at the outset of the financial crisis is mostly explained by the rise of the risk premia; the persistently high level of part-time employment in the later period is mainly explained by an exogenous increase in part-time labor supply. A part-time labor supply shock also explains a significant portion of slow recovery in the gross wage during the recession, as the shock lowers the part-time wage and the proportion of full-time workers in total employment. Notably, the results from our model suggest that though the transition from full-time to part-time jobs contributed to mitigating the sharp contraction in total employment and labor force during the Great Recession, it played only a limited role in relieving recessionary pressure.



中文翻译:

大萧条中非全日制就业的增加:其原因和宏观经济影响

在大萧条期间,美国经济在持续时间内见证了非全日制就业的大幅增长。我们扩展了Galí等人的新凯恩斯主义失业模型。(2012年)允许在全职和兼职之间进行替代,并使用贝叶斯方法估计模型的参数。在我们的模型中,家庭和公司可以最佳地分配全职和兼职劳动力,并且兼职劳动力供应(兼职劳动力对家庭无用)和兼职劳动力需求(企业使用部分产品的效率)存在干扰。工)。至于大萧条,金融危机爆发之初,兼职工作的最初增加主要是由于风险溢价的上升;后期非全日制就业持续居高不下的主要原因是非全日制劳动力供给的外生性增长。兼职劳动力供应的冲击也解释了经济衰退期间总工资缓慢恢复的很大一部分,因为这种冲击降低了兼职工资和全职工人在总就业中的比例。值得注意的是,我们模型的结果表明,尽管从全职工作转变为兼职工作有助于缓解大萧条期间总就业和劳动力的急剧收缩,但在缓解衰退压力方面仅起到了有限的作用。冲击降低了兼职工资和全职工人在总就业中的比例。值得注意的是,我们模型的结果表明,尽管从全职工作转变为兼职工作有助于缓解大萧条期间总就业和劳动力的急剧收缩,但在缓解衰退压力方面仅起到了有限的作用。冲击降低了兼职工资和全职工人在总就业中的比例。值得注意的是,我们模型的结果表明,尽管从全职工作转变为兼职工作有助于缓解大萧条期间总就业和劳动力的急剧收缩,但在缓解衰退压力方面仅起到了有限的作用。

更新日期:2020-09-25
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