This paper argues that boom-bust behavior in asset prices can be explained by a model in which boundedly rational agents learn the process for prices. The novel feature of the model is that learning operates in both the demand for assets and the supply of credit. Interactions between agents on either side of the market create complementarities in their respective beliefs, yielding strong internal propagation. The model is applied to US housing markets. Quantitative exercises explain the recent boom-bust in US house prices from observed fundamentals whilst replicating key moments of housing market variables at business cycle frequencies.

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学习能否解释资产价格的高潮-低潮周期？申请美国住房热潮

本文认为，可以通过一个模型来解释资产价格中的兴衰行为，在模型中有限理性的主体学习价格的过程。该模型的新颖之处在于，学习在资产需求和信贷供应中都起作用。市场两边的代理商之间的相互作用在他们各自的信念中产生了互补性，产生了强大的内部传播。该模型适用于美国住房市场。定量分析从观察到的基本面解释了近期美国房价的暴跌，同时以景气周期频率复制了房地产市场变量的关键时刻。