In a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework, we characterize an analytical relationship between average inflation and oil price volatility by solving the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. The model shows that higher oil price volatility induces higher levels of average inflation. We also show that when oil has low substitutability in the production function, the higher the weight the central bank assigns to inflation in the policy rule, the lower the level of average inflation is. The analytical solution further indicates that, for a given level of oil price volatility, average inflation is higher when marginal costs are convex in oil prices, the Phillips Curve is convex, and the degree of relative price dispersion is higher. The evolution of inflation during the 70s and 80s is consistent with the prediction of the model.

在完全基于微观的新凯恩斯主义框架下，我们通过求解模型的理性预期均衡（至二阶精度）来描述平均通胀与石油价格波动之间的分析关系。该模型表明，较高的油价波动会导致较高的平均通胀水平。我们还表明，当石油在生产函数中具有较低的可替代性时，央行在政策规则中赋予通胀的权重越高，平均通胀水平就越低。分析解决方案进一步表明，对于给定的油价波动水平，当边际成本在油价中凸出时，平均通货膨胀较高，菲利普斯曲线是凸面，并且相对价格分散程度较高。