This article considers the application of the behavioural economics theory of loss aversion bias as an explanation for observed approaches to monetary compensation in Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). Beginning with a critique of the assessment that damages for breach of contract (both the reliance and expectation measures) embody the ethos of loss aversion bias, this article suggests that the dominant approach to compensation in ISDS is primarily forward-looking and profit-focused. Instances of loss-based compensation may be explained by rational means rather than through the heuristic of loss aversion bias. Compensation tied to loss may more accurately reflect full market value and often denote a lower quantum justified on the basis of lawfulness (as in expropriation). Most notably compensation based on actual losses serves the objective of certainty. The article concludes by suggesting that the dominant tendency of ISDS tribunals to award profit-oriented compensation may itself have a basis in a heuristic bias, namely the human tendency to seek to avoid missing out on future opportunities.

中文翻译：

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损失厌恶偏差或害怕错过：投资者与国家争端解决中赔偿的行为经济学分析

本文考虑应用损失厌恶偏差的行为经济学理论来解释投资者与国家争端解决 (ISDS) 中观察到的货币补偿方法。本文从对违约损害赔偿（依赖和期望措施）体现损失厌恶偏见精神的批评开始，本文表明 ISDS 中的主要赔偿方法主要是前瞻性和以利润为中心的。基于损失的补偿的实例可以通过合理的方式来解释，而不是通过损失厌恶偏差的启发式方法来解释。与损失相关的补偿可能更准确地反映完整的市场价值，并且通常表示基于合法性（如征用）合理的较低数量。最显着的是基于实际损失的补偿服务于确定性的目标。文章最后指出，ISDS 法庭裁决以利润为导向的补偿的主要趋势本身可能具有启发式偏见的基础，即人类试图避免错失未来机会的倾向。