We estimate the effect of asylum seekers on house prices in England and Wales from 2004 to 2015, and find, using panel data and time series methods, that the government’s dispersal policies have had small but statistically significant negative effects on housing prices, especially for lower-priced and lower-quality housing units. Our panel data regressions rely on variation across time and localities, and account for endogeneity bias using instrumental variables, to identify these causal effects. Time series regressions depend on plausibly exogenous nationwide flows of new asylum seekers, and provide evidence that negative house price effects are larger in areas that supported Brexit.

我们估算了2004年至2015年寻求庇护者对英格兰和威尔士房价的影响，并使用面板数据和时间序列方法发现，政府的分散政策对房价产生了较小但统计上显着的负面影响，尤其是对于较低的房价价格较低的住房单元。我们的面板数据回归依赖于时间和地点的变化，并使用工具变量解释内生性偏差，以识别这些因果关系。时间序列回归依赖于新的寻求庇护者在全国范围内的外源流动，并提供证据表明，在支持英国退欧的地区，房价负面影响更大。