Expectations about future housing prices are arguably an important determinant of actual housing prices, and an important input in decisions on whether and how to transact in the housing market. Using micro-level survey data on Swedish households, we analyse households’ expectations of housing prices and how these expectations relate to the characteristics of the respondents. Results show that age is found to be significantly related to housing-price expectations, with the youngest households – whose adulthood largely corresponds to the extended period of rapid housing-price growth in Sweden – having the highest housing-price expectations. This is consistent with the hypothesis that expectations are influenced by personal experiences. Our findings suggest that aggregate measures of expectations might hide important features of the data, which could be of interest to policy makers when choosing regulatory actions or formulating macroprudential policies.

对未来房价的期望可以说是实际房价的重要决定因素，也是决定是否以及如何在房地产市场进行交易的重要投入。使用有关瑞典家庭的微观调查数据，我们分析了家庭对房价的期望以及这些期望与受访者的特征之间的关系。结果表明，年龄与住房价格预期显着相关，最年轻的家庭（成年在很大程度上与瑞典住房价格快速增长的延长时期相对应）具有最高的住房价格预期。这与期望受个人经验影响的假设是一致的。我们的发现表明，对期望值的总体衡量可能会隐藏数据的重要特征，