Using a partial equilibrium model of the Swedish forest sector, this study analyzes the impacts of an increasing bioenergy production on the timber harvest and forest growing stock. The impacts on the carbon balance of forests are also examined. The results suggest that, when compared with the base scenario, in which the current use pattern of forests continues, increased bioenergy production will lead to a 10–14 million m3 (Mm3) increase in the total harvest, depending on the extraction rate of forest residues. Increasing the use of forest residues will reduce the harvest and leave more room for accumulation of the forest stock in the early years, while the stock accumulation will be partially offset by the increased timber harvest in the long run. Increasing bioenergy production will have a negative impact on the carbon balance primarily due to a net loss of carbon stored in forests. Overall, the joint contribution of forest-based mitigation is significant, equivalent to or higher than 65% of the country’s annual GHG emissions. To achieve an ambitious bioenergy target in the long run, a fraction of pulpwood will be consumed as fuelwood that will inevitably intensify the competition between the two timber products, though increasing the use of forest residues could slightly reduce the competition in the short run.

本研究使用瑞典森林部门的部分平衡模型，分析了生物能源生产增加对木材采伐和森林蓄积量的影响。还研究了对森林碳平衡的影响。结果表明，与当前森林使用模式继续的基本情景相比，生物能源产量的增加将导致总收获量增加 10-1400 万立方米 (Mm3)，具体取决于森林的采伐率残留物。增加林木剩余物的利用会减少采伐，并为早年的森林蓄积留出更多空间，而从长远来看，蓄积的积累将被增加的木材采伐部分抵消。增加生物能源生产将对碳平衡产生负面影响，这主要是由于森林中储存的碳的净损失。总体而言，以森林为基础的减排的共同贡献是显着的，相当于或高于该国年度温室气体排放量的 65%。从长远来看，为了实现雄心勃勃的生物能源目标，一小部分纸浆木材将被用作薪材，这将不可避免地加剧两种木材产品之间的竞争，尽管增加森林剩余物的使用可能会在短期内略微减少竞争。