In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways(“SSPs”) and the representative concentration pathways (“RCPs”). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socio-economic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of woody biomass harvesting for material products and traditional bioenergy. The reason is that energy crops provide a substitute for woody biomass use for modern bioenergy while there are less substitutes available for woody biomass use for material products and traditional bioenergy. Provided that carbon payments can be used as a policy instrument to control impacts of climate change mitigation on harvest volumes and harvested area, an unfavorable future socioeconomic development may cause a greater threat to the world’s forests than climate change mitigation.

在这项研究中，我们调查了减缓气候变化和社会经济发展对全球森林资源利用的影响。该分析基于全球生物圈管理模型 (GLOBIOM)，这是一个递归动态土地利用模型。气候变化减缓和社会经济发展作为外生参数包含在模型中，这些参数取自 SSP-RCP 情景，将共享社会经济路径 (“SSP”) 和代表性浓度路径 (“RCP”) 分开。SSP-RCP 情景的影响仅限于 SSP 数据库中定量记录的因素（经济增长、人口增长、生物能源需求和碳价格）。我们的研究结果表明，减缓气候变化和社会经济发展都可能在未来显着增加收获量和收获面积。发生这种情况是因为模型中没有使用森林面积进行采伐的机会成本。我们表明，通过考虑森林类型之间的碳储存变化和它们的碳支付，可以将这种机会成本添加到模型中。这些付款增加了木质生物质的价格，并使现代生物能源的木质生物质收获相对于常设森林中的碳封存而言利润较低的缓解选择。然而，这些付款对材料产品和传统生物能源的木质生物质收获的盈利能力没有太大影响。原因是能源作物为现代生物能源提供了木质生物质的替代品，而木质生物质用于材料产品和传统生物能源的替代品较少。如果碳支付可以作为一种政策工具来控制减缓气候变化对采伐量和收获面积的影响，那么不利的未来社会经济发展可能对世界森林造成比减缓气候变化更大的威胁。