An economic model of the global forest sector was used to estimate the carbon mitigating potential of the world’s forests to 2065 for 180 countries assuming future socioeconomic trends that do not change markedly from historical patterns, consistent with the IPCC-SSP2. Forest carbon pools were broken down into four categories; (i) above-ground and below-ground biomass, (ii) forest soil, (iii) dead wood and litter, and (iv) harvested wood products. Changes in forest carbon storage were driven by the dynamic relationship between endogenously determined timber harvest, wood product consumption, evolving forest biomass stock, forest area change and exogenous demographic and income changes. The results suggested that the forest sector was a net carbon source of approximately 3.6 GtCO2e yr-1 in 1992, decreasing to 2.4 GtCO2e yr-1 in 2014 (average rate: -0.05 GtCO2e yr-1), in general agreement with previous historical assessments. In the projections, the global forest sector achieved a net zero carbon balance by the year 2025, but with large variations by region and country. By 2030, the world’s forest sector became a net carbon sink of 1.5 GtCO2e yr-1 and eventually of 6.8 GtCO2e yr-1 by 2065. Uncertainties exist in projecting changes in forest area, including the influence of socioeconomic drivers and climate policy targets, as well as the interplay between forests and climate.

假设未来社会经济趋势与历史模式没有显着变化，与 IPCC-SSP2 一致，全球森林部门的经济模型被用来估计 180 个国家到 2065 年世界森林的碳减排潜力。森林碳库分为四类；(i) 地上和地下生物量，(ii) 森林土壤，(iii) 枯木和枯枝落叶，以及 (iv) 采伐的木制品。森林碳储量的变化是由内生决定的木材采伐、木材产品消费、不断变化的森林生物量存量、森林面积变化以及外生人口和收入变化之间的动态关系驱动的。结果表明，森林部门是 1992 年约 3.6 GtCO2e yr-1 的净碳源，2014 年降至 2.4 GtCO2e yr-1（平均比率：-0.05 GtCO2e yr-1)，与之前的历史评估基本一致。在预测中，全球森林部门到 2025 年实现了净零碳平衡，但地区和国家之间存在很大差异。到 2030 年，世界森林部门成为 1.5 GtCO2e yr-1 的净碳汇，到 2065 年最终达到 6.8 GtCO2e yr-1。预测森林面积的变化存在不确定性，包括社会经济驱动因素和气候政策目标的影响，如以及森林与气候之间的相互作用。