This article uses more complete state panel data (through 2014) and new statistical techniques to estimate the impact on violent crime when states adopt right‐to‐carry (RTC) concealed handgun laws. Our preferred panel data regression specification, unlike the statistical model of Lott and Mustard that had previously been offered as evidence of crime‐reducing RTC laws, both satisfies the parallel trends assumption and generates statistically significant estimates showing RTC laws increase overall violent crime. Our synthetic control approach also finds that RTC laws are associated with 13–15 percent higher aggregate violent crime rates 10 years after adoption. Using a consensus estimate of the elasticity of crime with respect to incarceration of 0.15, the average RTC state would need to roughly double its prison population to offset the increase in violent crime caused by RTC adoption.

中文翻译：

---

运载权法和暴力犯罪：使用面板数据和州级综合控制分析的综合评估

本文使用更完整的州专家组数据（到2014年）和新的统计技术来估算各州采用携带权（RTC）隐藏的手枪法对暴力犯罪的影响。我们首选的面板数据回归规范与以前作为减少犯罪的RTC法律的证据提供的Lott和Mustard的统计模型不同，既满足了平行趋势假设，又产生了具有统计意义的估计值，显示RTC法律增加了整体暴力犯罪。我们的综合控制方法也发现，RTC法律与13-15％的关联更高收养10年后的暴力犯罪总人数。使用关于0.15的监禁犯罪弹性的共识估计，RTC州的平均状态将需要使其监狱人口大约增加一倍，以抵消因采用RTC导致的暴力犯罪的增加。