This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on local development. Novel data covering the universe of oil wells drilled in Brazil allow us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase local production and have positive spillovers. Workers relocate from informal, low productivity agriculture to higher value-added activities in formal services, increasing urbanization. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.

中文翻译：

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赢得石油彩票：自然资源开采对增长的影响

本文提供了石油发现对当地发展的因果影响的证据。涵盖在巴西钻探的油井范围的新数据使我们能够进行准实验：发现石油的城市构成了处理组，而钻探但没有发现石油的城市是对照组。结果表明，石油发现显着增加了本地产量，并产生了积极的溢出效应。工人从非正式的低生产率农业转移到正式服务中的高附加值活动，从而加剧了城市化。结果与当地对高薪石油工人推动的非贸易服务的需求增加相吻合。