We study the Black Death pogroms to shed light on the factors determining when a minority group will face persecution. Negative shocks increase the likelihood that minorities are persecuted. But, as shocks become more severe, the persecution probability decreases if there are economic complementarities between majority and minority groups. The effects of shocks on persecutions are thus ambiguous. We compile city-level data on Black Death mortality and Jewish persecutions. At an aggregate level, scapegoating increases the probability of a persecution. However, cities which experienced higher plague mortality were less likely to persecute. Furthermore, for a given mortality shock, persecutions were more likely where people were more inclined to believe conspiracy theories that blamed the Jews for the plague and less likely where Jews played an important economic role.

中文翻译：

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负面冲击和大规模迫害：黑死病的证据

我们研究了黑死病大屠杀，以揭示决定少数群体何时将面临迫害的因素。负面冲击增加了少数群体遭受迫害的可能性。但是，随着冲击变得更加严重，如果多数群体和少数群体之间存在经济互补性，迫害的可能性就会降低。因此，震惊对迫害的影响是模棱两可的。我们汇总了有关黑死病死亡率和犹太人迫害的城市级数据。从总体上讲，替罪羊增加了遭受迫害的可能性。但是，瘟疫死亡率较高的城市遭受迫害的可能性较小。此外，对于给定的死亡率冲击，