In the coming decades, the countries of the South will be facing the aging of the population faster than the countries of the North. This will have long-term economic consequences for the South but also for the North through the changing of international capital flows. To study the latter, we build a simple two-region two-period overlapping generations (OLG) model, assuming fully integrated financial markets. This allows us to determine the analytical expression of the world interest rate dynamics at general equilibrium and the resulting capital flows accruing to each of the two regions (the North and the South). From there, we analyze how a reduction in either fertility or mortality alters the magnitude of the international capital flows. Contradictory effects are evidenced. To clear-up any ambiguity and to study the South's demographic transition, which involves a succession of shocks, we propose numerical simulations. Even if the results stress that the institutional context and technological catching-up may matter, they suggest in a rather general way that the declines in both fertility and mortality tend to reduce the relative capital needs of the Southern economies and consequently their capital inflows. This, in turn, would be beneficial to the North's productive capacity, which should then hold more capital.

中文翻译：

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金融一体化世界经济中南方的人口转变和国际资本流动

未来几十年，南方国家面临的人口老龄化速度将快于北方国家。通过改变国际资本流动，这将对南方和北方产生长期的经济影响。为了研究后者，我们建立了一个简单的两区域两时期重叠世代（OLG）模型，假设金融市场完全整合。这使我们能够确定一般均衡时世界利率动态的分析表达式，以及由此产生的资本流向两个地区（北部和南部）的增加。从那里，我们分析生育率或死亡率的降低如何改变国际资本流动的幅度。矛盾的影响得到了证明。消除任何歧义并研究南方' 由于人口转变涉及一系列冲击，我们提出了数值模拟。即使结果强调制度环境和技术追赶可能很重要，但他们以相当普遍的方式表明，生育率和死亡率的下降往往会减少南方经济体的相对资本需求，从而减少它们的资本流入。反过来，这将有利于北方的生产能力，从而应该持有更多的资本。他们以相当普遍的方式表明，生育率和死亡率的下降往往会减少南方经济体的相对资本需求，从而减少它们的资本流入。反过来，这将有利于北方的生产能力，从而应该持有更多的资本。他们以相当普遍的方式表明，生育率和死亡率的下降往往会减少南方经济体的相对资本需求，从而减少它们的资本流入。反过来，这将有利于北方的生产能力，从而应该持有更多的资本。