There is considerable uncertainty regarding changes in future mortality rates. This article investigates the impact of such longevity risk on discounted government annuity benefits for retirees. It is critical to forecast more accurate future mortality rates to improve our estimation of an expected annuity payout. Thus, we utilize the Lee–Carter model, which is well-known as a parsimonious dynamic mortality model. We find strong evidence that female retirees are likely to receive more public lifetime annuity than males in the USA, which is associated with systematic mortality rate differences between genders. A cross-country comparison presents that the current public annuity system would not fully cover retiree's longevity risk. Every additional year of life expectancy leaves future retirees exposed to high risk, arising from high volatility of lifetime annuities. Also, because the growth in life expectancy is higher than the growth of expected public pension, there will be a financial risk to retirees.

中文翻译：

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长寿风险高

未来死亡率的变化存在相当大的不确定性。本文调查了这种长寿风险对退休人员贴现的政府年金福利的影响。预测更准确的未来死亡率以改进我们对预期年金支出的估计至关重要。因此，我们利用 Lee-Carter 模型，该模型以简约的动态死亡率模型而闻名。我们发现强有力的证据表明，在美国，女性退休人员可能比男性获得更多的公共终身年金，这与性别之间的系统性死亡率差异有关。跨国比较表明，目前的公共年金制度并不能完全覆盖退休人员的长寿风险。预期寿命每增加一年，未来的退休人员就会面临高风险，由于终身年金的高波动性。此外，由于预期寿命的增长高于预期公共养老金的增长，退休人员将面临财务风险。