Although carefully debated in the legal, aesthetic, and philosophical perspectives, the impact of fakes on the art market has been often overlooked by the economic literature. This paper offers a novel perspective on this issue by investigating the effects of the detection of several Alberto Giacometti’s forged sculptures. Using this exceptional quasi-experiment, the aim of the paper is to analyze whether a specific fake detection persistently influences the prices of a market segment or only exerts a short run effect. The Interrupted Time Series Analysis is adopted to evaluate the impact of fakes across percentiles of the return distribution, accounting for the overall trend in sculpture sales over the period 2000–2015. The empirical evidence shows that in the short run different dynamics emerge across percentiles, but in the medium run fake effects on returns are neutralized.

中文翻译：

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造假与不造假：对美术市场的实证调查

尽管在法律、美学和哲学的角度进行了仔细的辩论，但假货对艺术市场的影响却经常被经济文献所忽视。本文通过调查对阿尔贝托·贾科梅蒂 (Alberto Giacometti) 的几件伪造雕塑进行检测的效果，为这个问题提供了一个新的视角。使用这种特殊的准实验，本文的目的是分析特定的虚假检测是持续影响细分市场的价格还是仅产生短期影响。采用中断时间序列分析来评估假货对退货分布百分位数的影响，说明了 2000 年至 2015 年期间雕塑销售的总体趋势。经验证据表明，在短期内，百分位数之间会出现不同的动态，