Abstract

While finance studies suggest that forecast-confidence motivates trading, the experimental findings regarding the confidence-trading links are inconclusive and statistically weak. Attempting to bridge the gap, we modify the standard interval forecasting task to measure forecast-confidence more directly. The adapted task is utilized to test the confidence-trading correlations at the attitudinal level and in specific scenarios. The attitudinal test surprisingly reveals that forecast-confidence negatively correlates with the inclination to churn one’s stock portfolio, although confidence in profitability indeed boosts the willingness to trade particular stocks. The attitudinal correlation is endogenous, brought by opposite personality and competence effects on confidence and trading.

摘要

虽然金融研究表明预测信心会激发交易，但有关信心交易联系的实验结果尚无定论，而且在统计上也很薄弱。为了弥补差距，我们修改了标准区间预测任务，以更直接地衡量预测置信度。调整后的任务用于在态度层面和特定场景中测试信心交易相关性。态度测试出人意料地显示，预测信心与改变股票投资组合的倾向呈负相关，尽管对盈利能力的信心确实会提高交易特定股票的意愿。态度相关性是内生的，由相反的性格和能力对信心和交易的影响带来。