Abstract

Business valuations of the same company made by different valuators frequently diverge, resulting in lengthy and costly disputes. This paper takes a novel approach in explaining inconsistencies in business valuations by adopting a psychological perspective and offering a first investigation into the role of cognitive biases in valuations. In two experimental studies (N = 331) we show that valuators can be affected by both anchoring bias and engagement bias (i.e., being affected by a client’s interests). These findings cast doubt on the notion of fair value and demonstrate the importance of recognizing the psychology of business valuations. Our contribution is timely considering the current COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath in which accurate valuations will be paramount, but also extremely complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the economy and underlying industries.

摘要

不同估值师对同一家公司的商业估值经常出现分歧，导致冗长且代价高昂的争议。本文采用一种新颖的方法来解释企业估值中的不一致，采用心理学视角，并首次调查认知偏差在估值中的作用。在两项实验研究（N = 331）中，我们表明评估者会受到锚定偏差和参与偏差的影响（即，受客户利益的影响）。这些发现对公允价值的概念提出了质疑，并证明了认识商业估值心理的重要性。考虑到当前的 COVID-19 大流行及其后果，我们的贡献是及时的，准确的估值至关重要，