This paper provides evidence on the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in the Central Highlands of Afghanistan by exploring the climate sensitivity of crop net revenue per unit of land. A Ricardian model and a novel 2017 dataset for 1502 farmers in three central provinces along with 34 years of weather information are used to study the impact of variations in seasonal precipitation and annual temperature. The findings suggest a significant and nonlinear effect of climate factors on crop net revenue. The impact of seasonal precipitation is found to vary across space and time. The effect of increased annual temperature is found to be generally positive and significant—both statistically and economically. The predicted impact of future climate change is largely beneficial, mainly due to warming.

本文通过探讨作物对每单位土地净收入的气候敏感性，为气候变化对阿富汗中部高地农业的经济影响提供了证据。使用Ricardian模型和适用于三个中部省份的1502位农民的新颖的2017年数据集以及34年的天气信息来研究季节性降水和年温度变化的影响。研究结果表明气候因素对农作物净收入具有显着的非线性影响。发现季节性降水的影响随时间和空间而变化。从统计和经济角度来看，发现年气温升高的影响通常是积极的和显着的。主要由于变暖，对未来气候变化的预期影响在很大程度上是有益的。