This paper investigates the sustainability of Sri Lanka’s fiscal imbalance and public debt. To test for sustainability of the fiscal imbalance, the study applies a symmetric ARDL (autoregressive distributive lag) technique to estimate a government intertemporal budget constraint. And to test for sustainability of public debt, it applies an asymmetric ARDL technique to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which allows for differential responses in the primary budget balance depending on whether shocks to regressors are positive or negative. Annual data for the period 1961–2018 are used in the estimations. The results indicate that Sri Lanka’s fiscal management is inconsistent with strong form sustainability, which requires that expenditures not grow faster than revenues. However, estimation of the fiscal reaction function finds robust evidence for fiscal policy asymmetries. Evidence emerges that Sri Lanka’s fiscal policy stance is procyclical with strong stabilization tendencies in economic expansions that are not sustained in contractions. Against upsurges in the debt-to-GDP ratio, authorities are found to pursue fiscal consolidation, thus suggesting weak form sustainability.

本文研究了斯里兰卡财政失衡和公共债务的可持续性。为了测试财政失衡的可持续性，该研究采用了对称的ARDL（自回归分布滞后）技术来估计政府跨期预算约束。为了测试公共债务的可持续性，它采用了一种不对称的ARDL技术来估算财政反应函数，该函数可以根据对回归者的冲击是正面还是负面来对主要预算余额做出不同的反应。估计中使用了1961-2018年期间的年度数据。结果表明，斯里兰卡的财务管理与强劲的形式可持续性不一致，这要求支出的增长速度不能超过收入的增长速度。然而，财政反应函数的估计为财政政策不对称找到了有力的证据。越来越多的证据表明，斯里兰卡的财政政策立场是周期性的，经济增长具有很强的稳定趋势，而这种增长趋势并非紧缩。面对债务与GDP比率的激增，当局发现当局进行财政整顿，因此表明形式的可持续性较弱。