ABSTRACT

This study investigates the relationship between demography and inflation using panel cointegration for 24 countries during 1961–2014. It shows that the age structure of the population affects inflation. The answer to the question “is population aging inflationary or disinflationary?” depends on the stage of the demographic process and, particularly, on the consideration that the share of mature workers is increasing or decreasing. The empirical results support the existence of a long-run equilibrium function between inflation and the changes in the shares of the population under 20 years of age, young adults (20–34), middle-age people (35–64), and older-old people (75+). The panel least squares equations for inflation with population age shares growth, GDP growth, M2 growth, exchange rate growth, labour costs and recession dummy variables as exogenous regressors allow the identification of the population shares that have positive significant impact on inflation, and those that have negative significant effects on inflation.

摘要

本研究使用面板协整方法研究了1961-2014年间人口统计学与通货膨胀之间的关系。它表明人口的年龄结构会影响通货膨胀。问题的答案是“人口老龄化是通货膨胀还是通货紧缩？” 具体取决于人口统计过程的阶段，尤其是考虑到成熟工人所占份额正在增加或减少。实证结果支持通货膨胀与20岁以下人口，年轻人（20-34岁），中年人（35-64岁）和老年人之间的份额变化之间存在长期均衡功能（75岁以上）。通胀与人口年龄份额增长，GDP增长，M2增长，汇率增长，