ABSTRACT

The domestic saving and investment correlation as posited by Feldstein and Horioka is revisited for Turkey and tested over the whole period (1950–2017) and the two subperiods (1950–1989 and 1990–2017). The time-series properties of the data and the presence of structural breaks are properly addressed by the bounds testing procedure. Although, the investment and savings are positively correlated during the period of restricted capital mobility (1950–1989) and negatively correlated during the period of perfect capital mobility (1990–2017) according to the joint F-test on the significance of the coefficients, the long-run elasticity of investment with respect to savings ratio is significant for the whole period and for the first sub-period. The results confirm the Feldstein and Horioka hypothesis in a closed economy. However, the high, negative and insignificant long-run elasticity and non-constant coefficients in the second sub-period necessitate a full-investment model.

摘要

重新审视了费尔德斯坦和霍里奥卡提出的国内储蓄和投资相关性，并在整个时期（1950-2017年）和两个子时期（1950-1989年和1990-2017年）进行了检验。数据的时间序列属性和结构性中断的存在可以通过边界测试程序正确解决。尽管根据关于系数显着性的联合F检验，在受限的资本流动期间（1950-1989）投资和储蓄呈正相关，而在理想的资本流动期间（1990-2017）则呈负相关，投资的长期弹性相对于储蓄率在整个时期和第一个子时期都非常重要。结果证实了封闭经济中的费尔德斯坦和霍里奥卡假设。但是，高