ABSTRACT

This paper examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1975–2012, using a neoclassical production function augmented with merchandise exports and imports of goods and services. The study applies the Johansen cointegration technique and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, while the multivariate Granger causality test is applied to examine the direction of the short-run causality. In addition, the existence of long-run causality is investigated by applying a modified version of the Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model. The Johansen test and DOLS results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth. In addition, the study provides evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run, while no long-run causality is found to exist.

摘要

本文使用新古典生产函数以及商品进出口，商品和服务进口，检验了1975-2012年阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）的出口带动增长（ELG）假设的有效性。该研究应用Johansen协整技术和动态最小二乘（DOLS）回归来确认出口与经济增长之间存在长期关系，而多元Granger因果关系检验则用于检验短期因果关系的方向。此外，通过在增强矢量自回归模型中应用Wald检验的修改版本来研究长期因果关系的存在。Johansen检验和DOLS结果证实了出口与经济增长之间存在长期关系。此外，