Based on a linear provision/charge-off association and V-shaped scatterplots of these variables against nonperforming loan changes, Basu et al. (2020) argue that nonperforming loan changes mis-measure credit quality and linear provision models are mis-specified. They conclude that residual asymmetry controlling for charge-offs results from loan heterogeneity and the real estate crisis. Using additions to nonaccruals to measure credit quality, we find a linear association with provisions, that controlling for charge-offs induces misspecification, and no evidence of provision asymmetry. These results highlight the importance of basing hypotheses and causal models on theoretical underpinnings rather than on plots subject to known fallacies.

Basu等基于线性准备金/冲销关联和这些变量对不良贷款变化的V型散点图。（2020年）认为不良贷款变化会错误地衡量信贷质量和线性准备金模型。他们得出结论，控制冲销的剩余不对称性是由于贷款异质性和房地产危机造成的。使用非应计项目的补充来衡量信用质量，我们发现与准备金存在线性关系，即控制冲销会导致错误指定，并且没有提供准备金不对称的证据。这些结果强调了在理论基础上而不是在存在已知谬误的情节上建立假设和因果模型的重要性。