This paper analyzes the drivers of net private capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs), focusing in particular on the policies of the Federal Reserve. We argue that the role of the Federal Reserve in EME capital flows has been smaller than popularly believed. We first show that the run‐up in capital flows to EMEs predated the loosening of Fed policy, while flows slowed substantially between 2010 and 2015, even as the Fed's quantitative easing program continued to add to monetary stimulus. Both the initial surge in capital flows to EMEs and their subsequent decline are better explained by swings in commodity prices and EME output growth, a linkage which we confirm through panel data regressions on capital flows to 20 major EMEs. The anticipation of the normalization of Federal Reserve policy appears not to have played a predominant role in the decline of capital flows to EME between 2010 and 2015.

中文翻译：

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新兴市场资本流动与美国货币政策

本文分析了净私人资本流向新兴市场经济体（EME）的驱动力，尤其着重于美联储的政策。我们认为，美联储在新兴市场经济资本流动中的作用比人们普遍认为的要小。我们首先表明，流入新兴市场经济体的资本增加是在美联储政策放松之前，而在2010年至2015年期间，尽管美联储的量化宽松计划继续加重了货币刺激，但资本流动显着放缓。大宗商品价格的波动和新兴市场经济体的产出增长可以更好地解释流入新兴市场经济体的资本最初的激增及其随后的下降，这一联系可以通过面板数据回归到20个主要新兴市场经济体的面板数据来证实。