This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record to identify plausibly exogenous variation, we show that this finding is robust to potential endogeneity.

中文翻译：

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银行危机的宏观经济影响：英国的证据，1750年至1938年

本文分析了1750年至1938年英国银行业危机的宏观经济影响。我们构建了新的年度银行业危机年表，我们将其定义为奔跑和恐慌事件，以及在地理上分散的重大失败和停工。使用向量自回归，我们发现银行危机与经济增长的短暂，急剧和显着下降有关。使用叙事记录来识别可能的外源变异，我们表明该发现对潜在的内生性具有鲁棒性。