This paper examines the role of capital flows in the interwar German economy. We use a calibrated model of sudden stops as our analytical framework and derive four key findings. First, capital flows aggravated the boom–bust cycle of the Weimar economy. Second, these flows were strongly associated—during different periods—with reparations, conditions in the US capital market, and German domestic events. Third, capital flows before 1930 allowed Germany to pay reparations on credit and thus postponed the hour of reckoning when that debt had to be serviced using trade surpluses. Fourth, the German economic downturn in 1931 was due more to capital flows than to productivity shocks or reparations.

本文考察了资本流动在两次世界大战之间的德国经济中的作用。我们使用经过校准的突然停止模型作为我们的分析框架，并得出四个关键发现。首先，资本流动加剧了魏玛经济的兴衰周期。其次，这些资金流在不同时期与赔偿，美国资本市场的状况以及德国国内事件密切相关。第三，1930年之前的资本流动使德国可以偿还信贷，因此推迟了必须用贸易盈余偿还债务的时间。第四，1931年德国经济下滑的原因更多是资本流动，而不是生产力冲击或补偿。