Abstract

This article looks at the most recent data to define when the Little and Great Divergence occurred. It sorts the deep determinants of economic development into three categories (biogeography, culture-institutions, and contingency-conjuncture) to provides a comprehensive review of these factors in the context of the Great Divergence, and it discusses the concepts of persistence and reversal of fortune. The paper concludes that the Great Divergence was never an inevitability but became an increasingly likely prospect as time progressed. Furthermore, biogeography, culture-institutions, and contingency-conjuncture are not contradictory hypotheses. Rather, there is a clear pattern of change over time of the relative importance of these three categories of determinants. Further research is needed to uncover the underlying causal link or latent variable that could explain the successive relative importance over time of biogeographical, cultural–institutional, and contingent–conjunctural determinants of the Great Divergence.

中文翻译：

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重新评估“大分歧”辩论：调和明显不同的决定因素

摘要

本文着眼于最近的数据，以定义何时发生小分歧与大分歧。它把经济发展的深层决定因素分为三类（生物地理学，文化制度和偶然性因素），以在大分歧中对这些因素进行全面的回顾，并讨论了持久性和逆转财富的概念。 。该论文得出的结论是，随着时间的流逝，“大发散”绝非必然，而是越来越有可能出现。此外，生物地理学，文化制度和偶然性条件都不是矛盾的假设。相反，这三类决定因素的相对重要性随时间变化的趋势很明显。