This paper documents the systematic and negative effects of heightened macro uncertainty on financial analyst performance and the potential for managerial ability to moderate such negative effects. Specifically, we find that macro uncertainty measures are significantly and negatively correlated with the accuracy and informativeness of analysts’ earnings forecasts and positively correlated with the dispersion of earnings forecasts. Furthermore, we find that the negative effects of macro uncertainty on analyst performance are significantly mitigated in firms with high managerial ability. Our results provide a broad overview regarding the negative effects of macro uncertainty on analyst performance and indicate that managerial ability could be a potential moderator to mitigate the negative impacts of macro uncertainty on analyst performance, which is based on the upper-echelons theory.

本文记录了宏观不确定性增加对财务分析师绩效的系统性和负面影响，以及管理人员减轻这种负面影响的潜力。具体而言，我们发现宏观不确定性测度与分析师的收益预测的准确性和信息性显着负相关，与收益预测的离散性正相关。此外，我们发现在具有高管理能力的公司中，宏观不确定性对分析师绩效的负面影响已得到显着缓解。我们的结果提供了有关宏观不确定性对分析师绩效的负面影响的广泛概述，并表明管理能力可能是减轻宏观不确定性对分析师绩效的负面影响的潜在主持人，