Nationally, 18% of principals turn over each year, yet research has not yet credibly established the effects of this turnover on student and teacher outcomes. Using statewide data from Missouri and Tennessee, we employ a difference-in-differences model with a matched comparison group to estimate arguably causal effects. We find that principal turnover lowers school achievement by .03 SD in the next year, on average. Effects vary by transition type, with larger negative effects for transfers to other schools but no or even positive later effects of demotions of (presumably lower-performing) principals. Principal turnover also increases teacher turnover, but this does not explain the drop in student achievement. Replacement with an experienced successor can largely offset negative principal turnover effects.

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本金的影响

在全国范围内，每年有18％的校长上任，但研究尚未可靠地确定这种离职对学生和教师成绩的影响。使用来自密苏里州和田纳西州的全州数据，我们采用了差异差异模型和匹配的比较组来估计可能的因果关系。我们发现，来年的主要流失平均会使学校的成绩降低0.03 SD。效果因过渡类型而异，转学到其他学校的负面影响更大，但降级（可能是表现较差）的校长则没有甚至产生积极的后期影响。校长流动也增加了教师流动，但这不能解释学生成绩的下降。用有经验的继任者替代可以大大抵消不利的本金周转影响。