The halving of oil prices, during a short period between 2014 and 2015, has generated major terms of trade losses for oil exporting countries. This terms of trade shock has economy‐wide effects and significant distributive impacts. This paper, using a macro‐micro simulation model, describes and quantifies the channels of transmission from the drop of oil prices, to changes in welfare distribution at the household level for the case of the Russian Federation. The oil price reduction generates a reverse Dutch disease impacting sectoral employment, factor returns and consumption prices. It causes a contraction of employment and wages in more skill‐intensive (non‐tradable) sectors, and a reduction in consumption prices that is more pronounced for non‐food than for food goods. When these shifts are mapped to changes in incomes at the micro level, all households are affected. Poverty rates increase by 1 to 4 percentage points, depending on the poverty line used. At the US$ 10 a day threshold, 4.1 million additional people fall into poverty. Along the consumption distribution, richer people are affected more than those in the bottom 40%. However, this minor progressive impact may be reversed due to increases in unemployment and cuts in social programmes.

中文翻译：

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贸易冲击条款的分配影响：俄罗斯石油价格变动的情况

在2014年至2015年的短时间内，石油价格下跌了一半，给石油出口国带来了主要的贸易损失。这种贸易冲击条款对整个经济产生影响，并对分配产生重大影响。本文使用宏观微观模拟模型，描述并量化了从油价下跌到家庭层面的福利分配变化（俄罗斯联邦）的传播渠道。油价下跌产生了逆向荷兰病，影响了部门就业，要素收益和消费价格。它导致技能密集型（非贸易）部门的就业和工资收缩，消费价格的下降比非食品的消费更为明显。当这些变化被映射到微观水平的收入变化时，所有家庭都受到影响。根据所使用的贫困线，贫困率提高了1-4个百分点。在每天10美元的门槛下，有410万人陷入贫困。在消费分配方面，富裕人群的影响要比最底层40％的人群受影响更大。但是，由于失业人数的增加和社会计划的削减，这种轻微的渐进影响可能会逆转。