With trade tensions running high, the Trump Administration is considering new tariffs on imported automobiles, and the main target would be the European Union, traditionally America’s closest ally. In this paper we combine disaggregated models to estimate the impact of these tariffs worldwide, and especially on Spain. First, a trade-policy simulation model computes the potential effects worldwide. Then we plug these into the World Input–Output Database, obtaining the inter-sectoral effects of the tariffs on Europe and the rest of the world. Finally, we insert these results into the Spanish inter-regional Input–Output Tables, obtaining final effects for Spanish regions via their inter-sectoral relations with the European Union and the rest of the world. By our calculation, the new US auto tariffs could end up destroying 10,400 jobs in Spain alone and 567,000 jobs worldwide. Moreover, they might have unexpected consequences, affecting, Spanish regions and sectors that just indirectly depend on the automobile industry.

随着贸易紧张局势加剧，特朗普政府正在考虑对进口汽车征收新关税，主要目标将是欧盟，这个传统上是美国最亲密的盟友。在本文中，我们结合分解模型来估计这些关税在全球范围内的影响，尤其是对西班牙的影响。首先，贸易政策模拟模型计算全球的潜在影响。然后我们将这些数据插入世界投入产出数据库，获得关税对欧洲和世界其他地区的跨部门影响。最后，我们将这些结果插入西班牙区域间投入产出表，通过西班牙区域与欧盟和世界其他地区的跨部门关系获得最终效果。根据我们的计算，美国新的汽车关税最终可能会摧毁 10，仅在西班牙就有 400 个工作岗位，在全球有 567,000 个工作岗位。此外，它们可能会产生意想不到的后果，影响只是间接依赖汽车工业的西班牙地区和部门。