ABSTRACT

We provide a critical evaluation about how updating the input–output data of a computable generation equilibrium model can affect policy results, an assessment that is rarely done in existing literature. Specifically, we explore how datasets with different fossil energy cost shares alter results of policy simulations that aim at reducing CO₂ emissions. We prove analytically that a sudden fossil fuel price surge, which provides little time for adjustment through input substitution, can lead to a higher CO₂ mitigation cost. The finding is demonstrated empirically in a full-scale economy-wide model for a base year with lower fossil fuel prices, contrasted with results from a base year when fossil fuel prices spiked. We then propose an adjustment to resolve the issues of using input–output data that embed abrupt fossil fuel price hikes.

摘要

我们提供了关于更新可计算发电均衡模型的输入-输出数据如何影响政策结果的批判性评估，这种评估在现有文献中很少进行。具体而言，我们探讨了具有不同化石能源成本份额的数据集如何改变旨在减少 CO ₂排放的政策模拟结果。我们通过分析证明，化石燃料价格突然飙升，几乎没有时间通过​​输入替代进行调整，可能导致更高的 CO ₂缓解成本。这一发现在化石燃料价格较低的基年的全面经济范围模型中得到了实证证明，与化石燃料价格飙升的基年的结果形成对比。然后，我们建议进行调整，以解决使用嵌入化石燃料价格突然上涨的投入产出数据的问题。