This paper compares the predictive performance of several models of risk aversion and time preferences in experimental settings. Models are evaluated on the basis of out‐of‐sample prediction rather than in‐sample fit. For preferences over risk, with the exception of very small sample sizes, allowing the estimation procedure to select between constant relative risk aversion and constant absolute risk aversion improves prediction beyond that of a single model. Moreover, adding a behavioural parameter such as disappointment aversion improves prediction further. This contrasts with time preferences, where adding the present‐bias parameter worsens prediction for all sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

中文翻译：

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实验中的预测和模型选择

本文比较了几种风险规避和时间偏好模型在实验设置中的预测性能。模型是根据样本外预测而不是样本内拟合来评估的。对于风险偏好，除了非常小的样本量外，允许估计程序在恒定相对风险厌恶和恒定绝对风险厌恶之间进行选择，从而改进了超出单个模型的预测。此外，添加诸如失望厌恶之类的行为参数进一步提高了预测能力。这与时间偏好形成对比，其中添加当前偏差参数会恶化所有样本大小的预测。[作者摘要]