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Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment
Economic Policy ( IF 3.844 ) Pub Date : 2018-10-09 , DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiy013
Carlo Altavilla 1 , Miguel Boucinha 1 , José-Luis Peydró 2
Affiliation  

We analyse the impact of standard and non-standard monetary policy measures on bank profitability. For empirical identification, the analysis focuses on the euro area, thereby exploiting substantial bank and country heterogeneity within a monetary union where the central bank has implemented a broad range of unconventional policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates. We use both proprietary and commercial data on individual bank balance sheets and financial market prices. Our results show that monetary policy easing – a decrease in short-term interest rates and/or a flattening of the yield curve – is not associated with lower bank profits once we control for the endogeneity of the policy measures to expected macroeconomic and financial conditions. Importantly, our analysis indicates that the main components of bank profitability are asymmetrically affected by accommodative monetary conditions, with a positive impact on loan loss provisions and non-interest income largely offsetting the negative one on net interest income. We also find that a protracted period of low interest rates might have a negative effect on profits that, however, only materialises after a long period of time and tends to be counterbalanced by improved macroeconomic conditions. In addition, while more operationally efficient banks benefit more from monetary policy easing, banks engaging more extensively in maturity transformation experience a higher increase in profitability after a steepening of the yield curve. Finally, we assess the impact of unconventional monetary policies on market-based measures of expected bank profitability and credit risk, by employing an event study analysis using high frequency data, and find that accommodative monetary policies tend to increase bank stock returns and reduce credit risk.

中文翻译:

低利率环境下的货币政策与银行盈利能力

我们分析了标准和非标准货币政策措施对银行盈利能力的影响。为了进行经验识别,分析着重于欧元区,从而利用了货币联盟内部大量的银行和国家异质性,中央银行已在其中实施了广泛的非常规政策,包括量化宽松和负利率。我们在单个银行资产负债表和金融市场价格上使用专有和商业数据。我们的结果表明,一旦我们将政策措施的内生性控制在预期的宏观经济和金融状况下,货币政策放松(短期利率降低和/或收益率曲线趋于平坦)就不会与银行利润下降相关。重要的,我们的分析表明,宽松的货币条件对银行获利能力的主要组成部分具有非对称的影响,对贷款损失准备金和非利息收入产生了积极影响,在很大程度上抵消了净利息收入的不利影响。我们还发现,长期的低利率可能会对利润产生负面影响,但是,只有在很长一段时间后才会实现,而且倾向于通过改善宏观经济状况来抵消。此外,虽然运营效率更高的银行会从货币政策放松中获得更多收益,但在收益率曲线趋于陡峭之后,更广泛地参与期限转换的银行的利润率会更高。最后,
更新日期:2018-10-09
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