The paper presents an adaptation of modern behavioral economic theory to portfolio investment in the Russian stock market. The author analyzes the possibility of optimizing the investment portfolio for a private investor using portfolio correction based on changes in monetary policy indicators available in media sources. The behavioral model of portfolio selection is used, based on the value of shares on Moscow Exchange and taking into account a reference point in the theory of prospects in the form of indicators regulated by the Bank of Russia. The key rate and the standard of required reserves, inflation, the average rate on bank deposits, and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble are used as monetary policy in­dicators. The behavioral model is a modified theory of average variance, in which the calculation of profitability and risk is carried out according to the main behavioral theories, namely the cumulative prospect and mental accounting theory. The author considers various options for forming a portfolio in accordance with the level of risk aversion. As a result of comparing the models of optimization of the average variance portfolio and the models based on the modified theory of average variance using behavioral factors, higher risk-return ratios of the modified models were revealed in the forecast period, while for the analyzed period all models were located on the line of Markowitz efficient portfolio. As a further development of the portfolio behavioral theory, the possibilities of adapting the model are proposed not only depending on the points of reference, but also de­pending on changes in risk acceptance coefficients and probability estimates.

中文翻译：

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考虑货币政策的行为感知，优化投资组合

本文提出了一种现代行为经济学理论，以适应俄罗斯股票市场的证券投资。作者分析了根据媒体来源中可用的货币政策指标的变化，使用投资组合修正对私人投资者优化投资组合的可能性。使用投资组合选择的行为模型，该模型基于莫斯科交易所的股票价值，并以俄罗斯银行规定的指标形式考虑了前景理论中的参考点。货币政策指标使用关键汇率和所需准备金的标准，通货膨胀，银行存款的平均汇率以及美元对卢布的汇率。行为模型是平均方差的修正理论，其中，盈利能力和风险的计算是根据主要行为理论（即累积前景和心理会计理论）进行的。作者根据风险规避的程度考虑了形成投资组合的各种选择。通过比较平均方差投资组合的优化模型和基于行为因素的平均方差修正理论的模型，预测期发现修正后的模型具有较高的风险收益率，而在分析期间所有型号均位于Markowitz高效产品组合的生产线上。随着投资组合行为理论的进一步发展，提出了适应模型的可能性，不仅取决于参考点，