This paper investigates the consequences of population ageing and of changes in the education composition of the population for macroeconomic performance. Estimation results from a theoretically founded empirical framework show that ageing as well as the education composition of the population influence economic performance. The estimates and simulations based on population projections and different counterfactual scenarios show that population ageing will have a substantial negative consequence for macroeconomic performance in many countries in the years to come. The results also suggest that education expansions tend to offset the negative effects, but that the extent to which they compensate the ageing effects differs vastly across countries. The simulations illustrate the heterogeneity in the effects of population ageing on economic performance across countries, depending on their current age and education composition. The estimates provide a method to quantify the increase in education that is required to offset the negative consequences of population ageing. Counterfactual changes in labour force participation and productivity required to neutralise ageing are found to be substantial.

中文翻译：

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教育能否弥补人口老龄化对宏观经济表现的影响？

本文研究了人口老龄化和人口教育结构变化对宏观经济表现的影响。从理论上建立的经验框架进行的估计结果表明，人口老龄化以及人口的教育构成会影响经济绩效。根据人口预测和不同的反事实情景进行的估计和模拟表明，人口老龄化将对未来许多国家的宏观经济表现产生重大负面影响。研究结果还表明，教育扩张倾向于抵消负面影响，但各国补偿老龄化影响的程度差异很大。这些模拟说明了各国人口老龄化对各国经济表现的影响的异质性，具体取决于其当前年龄和受教育程度。估计数提供了一种量化教育增长的方法，以抵消人口老龄化的负面影响。人们发现，消除老龄化所需的劳动力参与和生产率的反事实变化是巨大的。