Unlike past studies, recent studies try to separate currency appreciations from depreciations and show that indeed, the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance are asymmetric. We add to this literature by considering the response of the trade balance of 45 industries that trade between Turkey and the USA We find that the real lira-dollar rate has short-run asymmetric effects in 28 out of 45 industries. Short-run asymmetric effects translate into the long-run asymmetric effects in only 13 industries. While our findings are industry specific, additional analysis revealed that in some industries while depreciations had significant effects, appreciations did not, in some other industries the opposite was true. Such findings were hidden by the estimates of past traditional linear models.

与过去的研究不同，最近的研究试图将货币升值与贬值分开，并表明汇率变化对贸易平衡的影响确实是不对称的。我们通过考虑土耳其和美国之间进行贸易的45个行业的贸易收支的响应来增加该文献，我们发现实际里拉对美元汇率在45个行业中的28个中具有短期的非对称效应。短期不对称效应转化为仅13个行业的长期不对称效应。尽管我们的发现是针对特定行业的，但其他分析表明，在某些行业中，虽然折旧会产生重大影响，但升值却没有，而在其他行业中，情况恰恰相反。这些发现被过去传统线性模型的估计所掩盖。