ABSTRACT

This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study on the determinants of foreign aid at the regional level. This is done by adopting a panel Bayesian model averaging approach applied on the data of 10 Sahel countries spanning from 1985 to 2017. Our results suggest that, among the regressors considered, those reflecting trade stakes including arm imports, institutional conditions and socioeconomic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the linear panel data model applied. The results highlight three concerns that justify aid flows towards Sahel countries: (i) interest of donors (self-interest), (ii) recipient economic needs and (iii) security purposes. The paper recommends Sahel countries to strengthen international cooperation for security and peace in compliance with the 13th goal of the Agenda 2063 of the African Union.

摘要

本文将模型不确定性引入区域层面外援决定因素的实证研究中。这是通过对 10 个萨赫勒国家 1985 年至 2017 年的数据采用面板贝叶斯模型平均方法来完成的。我们的结果表明，在考虑的回归变量中，那些反映贸易利益的回归变量，包括武器进口、制度条件和社会经济前景往往获得较高的后验包含概率。这些发现对模型规范和样本组成的变化是稳健的，并且不受所应用的线性面板数据模型的显着影响。结果强调了三个问题，证明援助流向萨赫勒国家是合理的：（i）捐助者的利益（自身利益），（ii）受援国的经济需求和（iii）安全目的。