This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices from 1900 to 2015 for 40 commodities, representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In doing so, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles, and short-run boom/bust episodes. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) real commodity prices have been on the rise—albeit modestly—from 1950; (2) there is a pattern—in both past and present—of commodity price cycles, entailing large and long-lived deviations from underlying trends; (3) these commodity price cycles are themselves punctuated by boom/bust episodes which are historically pervasive.

中文翻译：

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从繁荣到萧条：从长远来看实际商品价格的类型

本文考虑了1900年至2015年40种商品的实际商品价格的证据，即2011年的生产总值8.72万亿美元。在此过程中，本文提出并记录了商品价格的综合类型，包括长期趋势，中期和中期。运行周期和短期繁荣/萧条情节。主要发现可归纳如下：（1）实际商品价格自1950年以来一直在适度增长；（2）过去和现在都有商品价格周期的模式，导致与基本趋势的大而长期的偏离；（3）这些商品价格周期本身是由历史上普遍存在的繁荣/萧条时期决定的。