This paper empirically analyzes distinctions between intra- and inter-industry trade indices. The research indicates that the co-movements of business cycles are influenced more through the intra-industry trade channel than by the total volume of trade itself. As trade integration among Asian countries increased, business cycle synchronization among these countries was expected to expand through trade transmission. Inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization will induce less synchronized business cycles, while intra-industry trade could lead to increased business cycle synchronization. Moreover, I find that increased business cycle synchronization, as one of the optimum currency area criteria, is overemphasized.

中文翻译：

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产业内贸易对东亚商业周期同步的影响

本文从经验上分析了行业内和行业间贸易指数之间的区别。研究表明，商业周期的共同运动受产业内部贸易渠道的影响要大于贸易总量本身的影响。随着亚洲国家之间贸易一体化程度的提高，预计这些国家之间的商业周期同步将通过贸易传播而扩大。行业间贸易导致更高的专业化程度，将导致同步的业务周期减少，而行业内贸易则可能导致业务周期同步性提高。此外，我发现作为最佳货币区域标准之一的增加的业务周期同步被过分强调了。