Decision making requires managers to constantly estimate the probability of uncertain outcomes and update those estimates in light of new information. This article provides guidance to managers on how they can improve that process by more explicitly adopting a Bayesian approach. Clear understanding and application of the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate probability estimates, resulting in better informed decisions. More importantly, adopting a Bayesian approach, even informally, promises to improve the quality of managerial thinking, analysis, and decisions in a variety of additional ways.

中文翻译：

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在不确定性下使用贝叶斯更新改进决策

决策需要管理人员不断估计不确定结果的可能性，并根据新信息更新这些估计。本文为管理人员提供了有关如何通过更明确地采用贝叶斯方法来改进该流程的指导。对贝叶斯方法的清楚理解和应用导致更准确的概率估计，从而导致更明智的决策。更重要的是，即使是非正式的采用贝叶斯方法，也有望以多种其他方式提高管理思维，分析和决策的质量。