This paper employs unique tax administrative data and operational audit information from a sample of approximately 7,500 self-employed U.S. taxpayers to investigate the effects of operational tax audits on future reporting behavior. Our estimates indicate that audits can have substantial deterrent or counter-deterrent effects. Among those taxpayers who receive an additional tax assessment, reported taxable income is estimated to be 64% higher in the first year after the audit than it would have been in the absence of the audit. In contrast, among those taxpayers who do not receive an additional tax assessment, reported taxable income is estimated to be approximately 15% lower the year after the audit than it would have been had the audit not taken place. Our results suggest that improved targeting of audits towards noncompliant taxpayers would not only yield more direct audit revenue, it would also pay dividends in terms of future tax collections.

中文翻译：

---

审计会阻止还是挑起未来的税收违规行为？自雇纳税人的证据

本文采用了大约7500名美国自雇纳税人样本中的独特税收管理数据和运营审计信息，以调查运营税收审计对未来报告行为的影响。我们的估计表明，审计会产生重大的威慑或反威慑作用。在接受额外税收评估的那些纳税人中，估计在审计后的第一年报告的应税收入比没有进行审计的应纳税收入高出64％。相反，在那些没有接受额外税收评估的纳税人中，报告的应税收入估计比审计后一年少了15％。