The tax compliance literature is primarily focused on taxpayers who fail to accurately report their taxes when they file their returns. In this paper, our focus is on “ghosts” – individuals who do not even file a tax return. To learn more about this relatively understudied population, we examine a combination of US administrative data and matched Census survey data. Our results indicate that 10-12 percent of US households with a federal filing requirement fail to file a timely income tax return. Approximately 40 percent of such households do eventually file a late return. However, the tax gap associated with those who never file is substantial, amounting to an estimated $18-20 billion each year. To gain new insights into what drives individuals to become ghosts, we employ a novel econometric methodology (calibrated probit analysis). We find that the failure to file a timely return is negatively associated with age and income, but positively associated with having a high filing burden and being married. Taxpayers with income near the filing threshold are also less likely to file on time, particularly if they are not eligible for a refundable tax credit. We also find evidence of regional variation in filing compliance.  The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IRS.

中文翻译：

---

雷达下的飞行：幽灵与所得税

税收合规文献主要集中在纳税人在提交纳税申报表时未能准确报告其税收的情况。在本文中，我们的重点是“鬼魂”-甚至没有提交纳税申报表的个人。要了解有关这个相对未被充分研究的人口的更多信息，我们将美国行政数据与匹配的人口普查调查数据进行了组合。我们的结果表明，有联邦备案要求的美国家庭中有10-12％未能及时提交所得税申报表。最终大约有40％的此类家庭确实提交了延迟申报表。但是，与从未申报者相关的税收缺口巨大，估计每年达18至200亿美元。为了获得新的见解，使人们成为鬼魂，我们采用了一种新颖的计量经济学方法（校准概率分析）。我们发现，未能及时提交申报表与年龄和收入呈负相关，而与较高的申报负担和结婚呈正相关。收入接近申报门槛的纳税人也不太可能按时申报，特别是如果他们没有资格获得可退还的税收抵免。我们还发现了文件合规性区域差异的证据。herein本文表达的观点仅代表作者，并不代表美国国税局的观点。我们还发现了文件合规性区域差异的证据。herein本文表达的观点仅代表作者，并不代表美国国税局的观点。我们还发现了文件合规性区域差异的证据。herein本文表达的观点仅代表作者，并不代表美国国税局的观点。