ABSTRACT

This study investigates asymmetry in the impact of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States, focusing on the output gap and unemployment gap. We aim to reveal how positive and negative changes in these economic activity indicators affect the inflation rate by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach (NARDL) and the Phillips curve. Empirical results demonstrate the long-run asymmetry as inflation in Estonia and Lithuania responds more significantly to positive changes in the output gap, whereas negative changes in the unemployment gap exhibit a stronger long-run impact on inflation in all three countries. These findings mainly suggest some extent of downward price rigidity in the Baltic economies, indicating a nonlinear Phillips curve and relatively large costs of disinflation policy directed to aggregate demand reduction. Further analysis reveals that increasing downward nominal wage flexibility could reduce these asymmetries in Estonia and, to a lesser extent, in Latvia and Lithuania.

摘要

这项研究调查了波罗的海国家国内通胀驱动因素的不对称性，重点是产出差距和失业差距。我们旨在通过采用非线性自回归分布滞后方法（NARDL）和菲利普斯曲线来揭示这些经济活动指标的正负变化如何影响通货膨胀率。实证结果表明，随着爱沙尼亚和立陶宛的通货膨胀对产出差距的积极变化做出更大的反应，长期的不对称性，而失业差距的消极变化对这三个国家的通货膨胀表现出更强的长期影响。这些发现主要表明波罗的海经济体的价格刚性有所下降，表示非线性菲利普斯曲线和针对总需求减少的较大的通货膨胀政策成本。进一步的分析表明，降低名义工资的灵活性可以减少爱沙尼亚的这些不对称性，并在较小程度上减少拉脱维亚和立陶宛的不对称性。