ABSTRACT

This paper assesses the effect of increases in the Estonian minimum wage in 2013–2016 on the probability of workers at different wage levels retaining employment. The effect is identified by comparing the probability of workers remaining employed after increases in the minimum wage in 2013–2016 with the probability of workers at comparable wage levels remaining employed in the 2009–2011 when the minimum wage was left unchanged. Estimations on data from the Estonian Labour Force Survey show that the increases in the minimum wage in 2013–2016 had no or small and imprecisely estimated effects on employment retention for the directly affected workers and similarly for those indirectly affected. These results are robust to the choice of control variables, to refinements of the treatment group and to changes in the time sample.

摘要

本文评估了2013-2016年爱沙尼亚最低工资的上涨对不同工资水平的工人保持就业的可能性的影响。通过比较2013-2016年最低工资增加后工人继续受雇的可能性与2009-2011年最低工资保持不变时处于可比较工资水平的工人继续受雇的可能性，可以识别出这种影响。爱沙尼亚劳动力调查的数据估计表明，2013-2016年最低工资的提高对直接受影响的工人和间接受影响的工人的就业保留没有影响，或者估计的影响很小或不精确。这些结果对于控制变量的选择，治疗组的改进以及时间样本的变化均具有鲁棒性。