ABSTRACT

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led Western countries and Russia to impose economic sanctions on each other, including the euro zone members. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of sanctions are analyzed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions in the model. The sanction shock is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We find weak evidence that Russian and euro area GDPs declined as a result of the sanctions. The effects of the sanctions are also small for the real effective exchange rate.

摘要

2014年3月开始的俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突导致西方国家和俄罗斯对彼此施加经济制裁，其中包括欧元区成员国。本文调查了制裁对俄罗斯和欧元区经济实体的影响。制裁的影响是通过结构向量自回归分析的。为了确定我们感兴趣的影响，我们在模型中包含一个衡量制裁力度的指数。通过叙述性标志限制来识别制裁冲击并将其与油价冲击分开。我们发现证据不足，表明制裁导致俄罗斯和欧元区GDP下降。制裁对实际有效汇率的影响也很小。