ABSTRACT

We construct comprehensive public sector balance sheets for Finland for 2000–2016 by complementing general government statistics with data on public corporations and pensions. These static balance sheets show that Finland’s public sector net worth at end 2016 was −160 percent of GDP, after having registered considerable fluctuations previously, including due to asset holdings’ sensitivity to equity valuations. We then expand the analysis to an intertemporal balance sheet by adding present value estimates of future fiscal flows. This allows performing fiscal stress tests and policy experiments. These suggest that Finland’s public finances will remain sound if ongoing reform efforts to address aging pressures yield their expected savings. Under this assumption, intertemporal financial net worth (IFNW) of the public sector would exceed 50 percent of GDP – well within the 30–85 percent of GDP range derived in stress tests as the needed buffer to maintain positive IFNW in light of a severe shock.

摘要

我们通过以公共公司和养老金数据补充一般政府统计数据，为芬兰构建2000-2016年的公共部门综合资产负债表。这些静态资产负债表显示，芬兰2016年末的公共部门净资产为GDP的−160％，此前曾出现过大幅波动，其中包括资产持有者对股票估值的敏感性。然后，我们通过添加对未来财政流量的现值估计，将分析扩展到跨期资产负债表。这样可以执行财政压力测试和政策实验。这些表明，如果为解决老龄化压力而进行的持续改革努力产生了预期的节省，芬兰的公共财政将保持良好状态。在这个假设下，